ZEPHIR

European renewable hydrogen: prospecting depends on funded projects and offtake

4 min read

European electrolysis capacity remains well below public targets, while the cost of renewable hydrogen continues to limit demand. For suppliers, the market exists, but each project must be assessed before starting a commercial approach.

A significant gap between capacity and targets

ACER recorded 308 MW of electrolysers in Europe in 2024, compared with a European target of 6 GW. This gap shows that public trajectories have not yet translated into an equivalent volume of completed projects. Announced capacity must therefore be distinguished from installations that have actually been commissioned.

The average cost of renewable hydrogen was approximately €8/kg in 2024. It remained four times higher than that of conventional hydrogen. This cost gap directly affects purchasing decisions and users' ability to secure volumes.

Offtake determines commercial maturity

A public pathway or decarbonisation strategy does not prove the existence of contracted demand. A project may have a location, a proposed technology or institutional support without having identified its buyer. The absence of offtake then weakens financing and delays equipment orders.

Electricity costs, grid access and project delays add to this uncertainty. We therefore exclude unfunded projects, initiatives with no defined use and announcements with no identifiable decision. We also exclude non-renewable hydrogen or hydrogen located outside the target commercial territory.

Supplier and buyer combinations requiring precise qualification

The market may include manufacturers of electrolysers, compressors and storage solutions. It may also be relevant to engineering firms and renewable hydrogen project developers. At these suppliers, the relevant contacts are generally within commercial management or business development.

Potential buyers are notably found in refining, chemicals, fertilisers, steelmaking and heavy mobility. However, the presence of a funded project remains a qualification requirement. The relevant functions to approach are then decarbonisation, industrial management or energy purchasing.

What this changes for suppliers

We do not recommend general prospecting across all industrial companies. Current weak demand makes it necessary to target companies with a specific project, a defined use case and identifiable funding. A strategy announcement alone is not enough to create a commercial opportunity.

Before any contact is made, we verify four elements: the project, the use case, the decision and the buyer. This qualification avoids involving teams in initiatives that are too early or have no offtake. It also allows us to focus our efforts on mature projects, even if several are already being pursued by major suppliers.

Let's discuss your growth.

We are a commercial growth firm serving industrial companies and their ecosystems. Our role is to understand your offering, define the accounts to target and arrange discussions with their decision-makers.

An initial 30-minute discussionNo commitment. We will respond within 48 working hours.

Firm overview · PDFTo share with your management team.Download

Confidential discussion. Response within 48 business hours.